700 billion sound good?
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/co ... op+stories
Forget Normal
Normally even falling stock markets take a break from time to time, as the vultures swoop in to pick up stocks at bargain prices.
But now, the market's psychology is anything but normal.
Every time the stock market rallies—as it did on the morning of Oct. 9—"there are tons of sellers everywhere," says Dave Rovelli, managing director of equity trading at Canaccord Adams. "People just want out."
Panic in financial markets—just as in everyday life—is explained by the fight-or-flight instinct. "That makes people overreact," says Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, a professor and expert on market psychology at the UCLA Anderson School of Management.
Not only are stock traders running scared, so are financial institutions. "You've got panics not only among individual investors but panic in the industry itself," says John Merrill, chief investment officer at Tanglewood Capital Management.
Dysfunction in the credit markets means financial firms lack the confidence to transact business with each other.
Irrational Despair?
A panic is a "situation in which people do things that contradict rationality," says Paolo Pasquariello, a professor at the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business.
But by that definition, is this really a panic? "It's difficult to say people are selling because they are panicking," Pasquariello says. Selling now isn't necessarily irrational, he says. There are plenty of good reasons to move from riskier to safer investments at a time when the financial system has stopped working and a serious economic slowdown looks imminent to many economists.
By contrast, Subrahmanyam is more convinced the markets are behaving irrationally. It's not as if we've had a nuclear war and "real" assets were destroyed, he says. Rather, problems are in the financial sector, not the "real" activity in the rest of the economy. "The real, nonfinancial base of the economy is still fairly strong," he says—far stronger than during, for example, the Great Depression.